1. 현재 미 셰일 상황 인식
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/rig-count-chaos-shale-drillers-are-confusing-u-s-oil-analysts
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Labor-Shortage-In-The-Shale-Boom.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Restraint-Could-Lift-Oil-To-80.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Is-The-Shale-Industry-Still-Not-Profitable.html
Oil Market Update Jan 2018.pdf
요약: 모두가 알고 있는 지표의 효용성 감소?
노동 비용 상승
CAPEX 늘릴 것인지에 관한 힌트는 셰일업체들의 4분기 실적발표 시점에서 얻을 수 있다?
셰일 업체 수익성은 여전히 저조해..
2. 과거 유가 분포에서 얻는 힌트?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/60-Oil-Will-Not-Last-Long.html
Yet, if there is one thing 160 years of the oil age teaches us, there is no such thing as a mid-range balancing point in oil markets. Everyone either rushes to one side of the ship or the other, almost always at the wrong time.
I’m only skeptical of one thing: That world oil markets will balance around $US 60/B. Historically, oil prices have not anchored in the calm of mid-ranges for long. So, today’s price is only a way point to either $US 45/B or much higher.
요약: 중간영역의 유가는 오래 지속되지 않는다. 어느 한방향으로 갈 것이다.
물론, 어디까지나 과거 경험상의 이야기.
