사우디 아람코 IPO 지연
유가 부양의 이유가 될 것인가?
아람코 IPO 지연에 관해 3가지 이유가 존재.
1. IPO 상장물량 및 복잡성
- 사우디는 아람코 가치를 20조 달러로 상정하고 있는데 5% 지분을 판매할 경우 1,000억 달러 규모에 이르러 2014년 알리바바의 250억 달러 규모를 훨씬 뛰어넘음.
- 거래물량에 더하여 사우디 아라비아는 런던 혹은 뉴욕과 같은 주요 국제 거래소 시장 뿐만 아니라 자국 거래소에서도 상장을 추진을 고려 중.
- 사우디 에너지 장관인 Khalid Al Falih는 CNN 과의 인터뷰에서 미국에서 법적 책임과 소송 등은 고려해야할 중요 요인으로서 사우디는 그러한 리스크를 짊어지기 꺼려하고 있는 상황. 알리바바 및 페이스북이 2012년 IPO 이전 규제 사항을 충족시키고 컴플라이언스 발표와 투자자 설명회를 완료하는데 6~9개월 간의 시간이 소요된 바 있음.
- IPO 과정에 익숙한 한 전문가는 상장 결정이 4월까지 내려지지 않을 경우 IPO는 확실히 2019년으로 지연될 것이라는 견해를 표명.
2. 더 높은 유가에 대한 희망
- 유가는 2016년 초 저점을 기록한 이후 상승기조를 유지. 그러나 2014년 100달러 이하에서 머무는 모습. 유가가 추가상승할 경우 투자자들에게 있어 아람코는 더욱 매력적인 주식. 사우디는 아람코 상장가치를 높이기 위해 추가적인 유가 상승을 원하는 모습.
- 다만 추가적인 유가 상승을 기다리는 전략은 다소 위험할 수도 있음. IEA는 미국, 브라질, 캐나다 등지의 생산량 증가로 2020년까지 수요 증가분을 총족시킬 수 있을 정도로 공급이 원활한 상황이 이어질 것으로 내다본 바 있음.
3. 사우디 아라비아 주식시장 개선
- 사우디 아람코 첫 상장 거래소는 사우디 자국내 거래소인 Tadawul이 될 예정. IPO 추진 이전 Al Falih는 MSCI로부터 Tadawul이 신흥국 시장 거래소로서 인정받기를 기다리고 있는 상황.
- MSCI는 6월에 지수편입을 조정할 계획. MSCI의 편입은 금융시장에서 유동성과 투명도를 인정 받았음을 의미해 투자자로부터의 신뢰 획득 가능.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/12/investing/saudi-aramco-ipo-delay-2019/index.html
Why Saudi Arabia's giant oil IPO may slip into 2019
Saudi energy minister: Listing Aramco in New York may be risky
It's expected to be the biggest IPO in history. And officials in Saudi Arabia were hoping it would happen this year.
Proceeds from Aramco's stock market listing have been earmarked to fund the diversification of the Saudi economy -- the centerpiece of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 program of reform.
But the sale of shares in the world's biggest oil company could slip into 2019. The Financial Times and New York Times both reported Monday that the timetable could be delayed.
In a statement on Monday, Saudi Aramco said it continues to review options for the listing, adding that "appropriate decisions will be made in due course." But it did not comment on the timing.
Here are three reasons why investors may have to wait a little longer to get their hands on its shares.
1. Size and complexity of the deal
Saudi officials have been targeting a value of $2 trillion for Aramco. Selling just 5% would raise $100 billion, dwarfing all previous IPOs, including Alibaba's (BABA) $25 billion sale in 2014.
In addition to the size of the deal, Saudi Arabia wants to combine a listing on its domestic stock exchange with an IPO in a major global market such as London, or New York. It also has major legal risks to consider.
Related: 6 ways life in Saudi Arabia will change in 2018
Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih told CNN on Thursday that "litigation and liability are a big concern in the US" and that officials would not want to subject the oil giant to "that kind of risk."
Alibaba, and Facebook (FB)in 2012, took between six and nine months to complete regulatory and compliance preparations and investor roadshows ahead of their IPOs.
"If a decision is not made by April, then the IPO would more certainly slip until 2019 because of all the planning and lead time needed," said one person familiar with the IPO process.
2. Hoping for higher oil prices
Oil prices have been on an upward trajectory since collapsing to $26 per barrel in early 2016. Crude oil is currently trading over $60 a barrel, but still well below the $100 it was worth in 2014.
Every dollar gained makes Aramco a more attractive buy for investors.
"They would probably also like to see the oil price somewhat higher as this would help the valuation," said James Reeve, chief economist at Samba Financial Group. "Most forecasts point to higher oil prices in 2019, including ours," he added.
Related: Trump to Saudi Arabia: Bring Aramco IPO to America
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and allies such as Russia have been cutting production since January 2017 to reduce a global supply glut. They agreed in November to extend those production cuts until the end of 2018.
But waiting for more favorable oil market conditions may be a risky strategy.
The International Energy Agency said last week that record oil output from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway, "can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020."
3. Upgrading Saudi Arabia's stock market
Saudi Aramco's first listing will be on the kingdom's own stock exchange, the Tadawul, in Riyadh.
But before proceeding with the IPO, Al Falih said the kingdom was waiting for the Tadawul to be granted emerging market status by MSCI. The index compiler is not due to carry out its next review until June.
If MSCI is satisfied with market reforms, the new status is expected to transform the Saudi stock exchange in the eyes of investors, and attract tens of billions of dollars in foreign money.
