https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Strong-Demand-Not-OPEC-Is-Pushing-Oil-Prices-Higher.html
The rally in oil prices over the past year likely had more to do with higher demand rather than merely the supply taken off of the market by the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts. That suggests that as OPEC tries to formulate a strategy going forward, perhaps targeting a certain price level, much of the success of that campaign will depend on the global economy and the pace of oil demand growth.
That conclusion comes from a new report published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). The report parses out some of the variables determining prices in recent years, dividing the recent past into four main cycles: 1) OPEC defending market share (2013-2015); 2) OPEC’s high output/low-price strategy to drive out shale (2015-2016); 3) OPEC/non-OPEC cuts (June 2016-April 2017); and 4) OPEC’s strategy to drain stocks (May 2017-present).
Throughout these four stages, one interesting conclusion is that the demand story is incredibly important, arguably more important than the market realizes, in driving the price of crude. The last half-decade, the focus in the media and among analysts is usually on the supply picture (U.S. shale growth, for instance, or the OPEC cuts), but evidence suggests a slowdown in demand or unexpected strength tends to have just as much influence, sometimes more.
석유 수요가 중요하다는 이야기
OPEC과 non-OPEC의 공급 이야기가 중심이 되고 있지만 그에 못지 않게 수요가 중요하다.
마침, 일부 실증분석 결과에서도 수요의 설명력이 높다.
어렵지만 수요를 어떻게 볼 것인가 하는 문제가 중요하다.
새 압축.z01
