https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2018/04/20/trump-engages-in-twitter-diplomacy-with-opec-but-is-it-really-about-oil-prices/#5a24f2c7459c
비슷한 논조의 기사가 나왔다.
트럼프는 높은 유가를 받아들일 수 없다고 헀지만
실질적으로 할 수 있는 조치는 많지 않다.
Trump Engages In Twitter Diplomacy With OPEC, But Is It Really About Oil Prices?
President Donald Trump took to his Twitter account Friday morning to go after OPEC for creating oil prices that he calls "artificially very high":
"Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea, Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!"
The price for both Brent Crude and WTI fell by more than half a percent in the hour following the President's tweet, but then gradually regained that ground.
While it is true that the export limitation deal between OPEC, Russia and a few other non-OPEC nations has played a large role in strengthening the price for crude over the last 16 months, it has certainly not been the only factor at play. A level of global demand growth for crude that has consistently out-paced projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency has also played a major role in drying up what had been a multi-million barrel per day global surplus.
Mr. Trump's tweet comes just a day after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in principle to extend the current agreement through at least the end of 2018, and as the price of gasoline in the U.S. is moving to 5-year highs just as the summer driving season is coming around. So it's possible the President was simply responding to those related realities.
But it's important to note that tweets like this from the President's personal Twitter account are often not necessarily about what the text makes them seem to be. We have to remember that Mr. Trump views everything as a negotiation , and that the United States has very complex relationships with Russia, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations related to a wide variety of international matters.
From a policy standpoint, there really is not much Mr. Trump could do to back up his threat that the current situation with crude prices is "no good and will not be accepted!" He has already implemented a long series of policy changes designed to stimulate the domestic oil and gas industry, and those policies are having their intended impact, given that the industry sets new records for production of both oil and natural gas on pretty much a daily basis. He could sell off the entire Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and it would have just a momentary - and fairly minor - impact on global crude prices. There really isn't much left for him to do to help generate more supply from his own country.
That leaves him only two other potential avenues of approach: Reduce demand, or convince the parties to the OPEC/Russia deal to work against their own economic interests by increasing their own production and lowering the crude price as a result.
There is no quick way to negatively impact demand for oil, short of engaging in a full-fledged trade war that would tank the global economy, and no one should think Mr. Trump is worried enough about the price of gasoline to engage in that action.
That leaves him with trying to influence OPEC or Russia to increase their own supply. Again, how do you do that? Here, the array of choices is at least potentially fruitful. It could be that the President is setting the stage for trying to influence Saudi Arabia to retreat from its recently-expressed desire to raise the Brent crude price into the $80/bbl range. Given the complexity of arms, trade and other relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump would have several levers of influence to pull there, if he so desires.
The President would have similar leverage with Russia -- he could even conceivably offer some form of reduced sanctions to Vladimir Putin's government in exchange for increased oil output.
Again, this is all only relevant if the President's goal here truly is lowering the price of crude. He could be throwing this threat out there in an attempt to gain a concession from one of these countries on some entirely unrelated matter. We have seen him engage in this sort of "Twitter diplomacy" before.
One thing we know for sure: If Mr. Trump really is interested in lowering the price of crude oil for longer than a few minutes, he's going to have to do more than tweet about it, and the policy tools he has available to him are really pretty limited.
The President might also want to keep in mind that, other than California and Colorado, every major oil producing state in the country voted for him in 2016, and those "red" states are enjoying the higher state tax revenues these higher crude prices are generating. Just a thought.